Hungarian report 1998

Hungarian report, RESER 1997 - Eva EHRLICH

R � s e a u E u r o p � e n S e r v i c e s & E s p a c e

- Annual report from RESER-

Hungarian Report

1998

par Eva EHRLICH

Index

1 - Introduction
2 - What are the problems of the branch / level studies already finished in Hungarian ?
3 - A few words about research underway

Introduction

During the past short decade there was a huge increase in the interest - both from abroad and within the country - towards Hungarian infrastructure and services.

This increase of interest is due to the following main factors :

- Changing international trends ;
- Stock-taking and evaluation of the heritage of state socialism
- The needs for new services and their spread in an emerging market economy

- The spread of private property and its institutional and legal preconditions during the half decade before sustemic changes (1985-1989). The gradual decay of state property in service sectors and its replacement with rapidly spreading private property ;

- The appearence of foreign capital in Hungarian service sectors in the years 1990-1993, then, from the end of 1993, also in the productve sectors and infrastructural networks. The problems it raised - first of all in telecommunications.

- Finally : With our associate membership in the European Union in 1991 and the plans of negociations for full membership, the fixing of the date of negociations about full membership (31 of March 1998) made it absolutely necessary to measure and evaluate the Hungarian situation in main sectors of infrastructure in comparison to international tendencies and the formulation of Hungarian strategy for the negociations.

We cannot engage here in reporting all the research about this large and ramificated area Therefore we decided to sum up the content of this research, or more precisely its table of contents and list in the Annex of the srudies - most of them existing only in Hungarian - which are offered for all those interested. The largest part of research was prepared within the framework and with financial assistance of the Strategic Task Force for European Integration created in spring of 1996 from independant researchers and specialists by the Hungarian government. The work program of this working group "Infrastructure and service" was established and coordinated with the work programs of other working groups. The establishment and coordination of the work of these groups was the task of the leader of the working group (the author of this short report. The work continues in 1998.

What are the problems of the branch / level studies already finished in Hungarian ?

1. Stock taking

The presentation, characterisation and evaluation of the present state, tendencies, rules of the game and conflicts within the EU (and its individual countries). The characterisation and evaluation of the main data and facts in a comparative analysis of positive and negative tendencies. The differences between prevailing Hungarian and present and likely future EU regulations. How to handle these diffences and their impact ?

2. Interestedness and disinterestedness

Interest and countre interest in Hungary, the EU and its members like Austria, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece. The tasks assumed by Hungary. The possibilies of dealing with conflicts between national and international interest ; the likely compromises, the main (from a Hungarian point of view) strategic requirements, the possible ways and consequences of differing variances and their "harmonisation".

3. The main points

Key problems of Hungarian access, and how to handle them. Within this : the areas requiring more detailed analysis and the areas for questions to ask in an impact analysis

4. The balance of advantages and disadvantages

The balance of advantages and disadvantages of accession from the point of view of main points. Taking into account the estimated length of negociations what are the costs and benefits for Hungary ? What are the lump-sum outlays on access and harmonisation ? What possibilities there are for the mobilisation of foreign financial sources to counteract the partial recompensation of losses and one-time costs of accession ?

5. Two special questions

- The magnitude, present trends and likely tendencies of international trade in services
- Changes in Hungary's employment structure with special reference to services

The program manager (coordinator) prepared a summary study (available also in English) based on the branch level studies and studies about special questions. The summary countains material about :

Wordwide and European tendencies of the whole area ;
The Hungarian heritage in the areas ;
Besides studies about branch-level (and special) problems the main strategic problems of Hungary's accession to the EU ;
It aventures into summary and sector-specific details of main tasks .

Another summary study prepared by coordinator appeared in Hungarian under the tittle "Strategic problems of Hungary's accession to the European Union in network-based infrastructural branches". It contains the latest facts and ideas about Hungary's accession to the EU (as e.g. facts and ideas about the new Hungarian transport strategy harmonised with the requirements of accession to the EU ; assumptions about EU subsidies ; competition and liberalisation ; development and finances competitors and allies ; possible needs derogation etc.).

A few words about research underway ?

In what follows we mention the most important areas where there is ongoing research :

1. Analysis of larger credit and international sources drawn or opened for development of infrastructure and services. The value and term of these loans and their share relative to own (national, local government) ressources. The dominant Hungarian actors in these branches, the level and scheduling of their indebtedness, the likely share compared to own (projected) contributions.

2. The evaluation of the given branch / sub-branch from the point of view of access ta and requirements against obtaining international loans. What should be done in order to improve the access to these sources.

3. The evaluation of Hungarian experiences with taking international credits.

4. International experiences in the financing of infrastructural network and individual services. What is the amount and share of individual infrastructural branches and their development, the role of mixed financing (central government, local government, private capital) and their internal breakdown ? The participation of foreign capital and Hungarian private capital in the development of differente Hungarian infrastructures and individual services The possibilities and methods of boosting this participation.

Wednesday April 21, 2004

RESER

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